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Population Projections


Recent population projections forecast significant growth in Birmingham’s population. Population projection information is provided to us by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The 2008-based projections (published in 2010) forecast growth of around 150,000 between 2011 and 2031. Numbers of households were estimated to grow by 81,500 within the same period.

The current long-term population projection is 2010-based (published 2012) and shows an even greater growth in population, with the population estimated to increase by over 200,000 by 2031. We are still awaiting estimates for household growth based on the latest population projection from the Department for Communities and Local Government. (DCLG)

Short-term population projections based on the 2011 Census suggest that the rate of growth will be lower than the 2010-based projection estimate. The 2011-based estimate shows growth of 85,800 to 2021. This compares with 108,700 according to the 2010-base and 75,900 according to the 2008-based projection.

The 2011 interim short-term Census-based population projections to 2021 for local authorities were published in September 2012. According to the projections, Birmingham’s population is projected to grow by 85,800, from 1,074,300 in 2011 to 1,160,100 in 2021, an increase of 8.0%. This compares with an estimated rate of 9.1% for the previous decade.

ONS have not yet published longer term projections based on the 2011 Census.

Population by Broad Age

The chart shows the numbers of pensioners in Birmingham are projected to grow by 11%, half the national rate. The population aged 85 and over is projected to grow by 30.1% (5,800).

See the documents below for more details.

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Last Updated: 6th January 2014